Based on an article published on May 5th by the notorious financial information platform "Bloomberg", some economists from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley report that there are signs of recovery in the world economy, regarding the impact of the coronavirus and restrictions imposed on businesses and consumers.
It is likely that economic activity has already reached its lowest point, it can be read in a report by the chief economist of Goldman Sachs.
Goldman Sachs forecasts an average slowdown of 32% in the current quarter; a growth of 16% in the next quarter and 13% growth in the last three months of 2020 in countries with advanced economies.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley's chief economist writes in a report published last weekend that there are already several indicators that the global economy was reaching its lowest level.
With this, we can predict that consumer expectations are rising again, mobility has increased in relation to minimum taxes and household spending is falling in a slower fashion than in the first weeks of the pandemic.
The expert's reading is that China's economy has already reached its lowest level in February, the Euro Zone is expected to hve hit it in April and the US will hit it by the end of May.
HSBC, through economist James Pomeroy, warned of overly positive interpretations of the global economic recovery, preferring a more conservative stance. He quotes that figures from China show a slower recovery profile, which indicates that consumer spending may take time to recover because people are still afraid to buy or go back to work.
With the easing of restrictions to combat the virus, the possibility of a second wave of the outbreak is real and could further disrupt activity. Therefore, the greatest negative risk to the global economic outlook is that infection rates will again accelerate sharply as the economy reopens.
We also do not know today what the political reactions will be and what health control measures will exist in the future, as this crisis has also served as a lesson to what can and should not be done in a future public health threatening crisis. But at the same time these measures will also have to serve the well-being of current and future generations of the world population, whether or not they have been severely affected by Covid-19.
If the word solidarity were to change from the simple word of an international treaty to a clear and definitive act of society, then this would be the greatest achievement!
Text: Paulo Lopes
Picture: Victor by Picjumbo