Real Estate - Where do the trends go?
We had finished our last article with the following statement: in tense markets like that one of our capital city, Lisbon, and the Algarve, there is not enough supply in relation to demand and the natural clientele has higher income and greater financial strength. We estimate that a correction and adjustment of values in the order of 5 to 10% of prices in Lisbon, Porto, Braga, Coimbra and the Algarve is likely. In medium size cities our opinion follows a little the data of idealista.pt which highlights a decline that can be twice as big, because the families living there sometimes have less solid financial situations. Can this perspective be compensated, due to the lived experience of confinement, by the recent aspiration of families to settle away from big cities and in a more comfortable living environment, less dependent on long trips on public transport? And the sudden charm of the extra office room in your home? Surely a simple interest due to the experience of lock-down will not necessarily trigger na actual purchase. This hypothesis described above only applies to those who can telework. Banks, which have focused on assisting businesses, are now more resilient to home loans and private loans, this may become a problem for the real estate business. The increase in traffic on sites to areas further away from major cities reflects curiosity, but does not mean a predisposition to purchase. The driving force for acquiring real estate is trust. However, this is being put to the test, with the sudden closure of the economy, the increase in unemployment, the decrease in income. Fewer volumes, fewer buyers, this could mechanically lead to a momentary drop in prices of 10 to 20% with an increase in disparities, especially geographical and between types of real estate product under construction, new and used. The portuguese real estate market is structured as follows: 55% of purchases are necessary, 30% are investments for rent and/or pure investment and 15% in second homes. Main home buyers will have the greatest distrust at this time, because it is the most important investment of their life in their own permanent home. Investment purchases will resume in October at the latest, for tax reasons and because of the need to invest capital in real estate assets. The purchase of the second home and the holiday home may come as a surprise to the market, taking into account the experience of the last few months many had wished to have a small house outside the dense urban perimeter where they were confined. This is true for the national client as well as for the international client. However we believe that we will have a phase of feeling the terrain both for seller and buyer, to meet the price and the needs of both, this will be reflected in the price of the property. We expect a moderate drop in prices until the end of 2020 and, above all, a severe drop in the volume of transactions due to lack of time to recover the three months in which we were forced to press the pause button, and that it will not be possible to recover in any way before 2021. Text: Paulo Lopes Picture: The Lazy Artist Gallery by Pexels
Real Estate: Where do prices go?
The health crisis has created an unprecedented situation. The real estate market has stagnated, transactions have not yet resumed, now it is good to know what will happen to the prices. The housing market came to a standstill on March 18th , when mandatory confinement and a state of emergency were implemented by the Portuguese government. This deprived us from visits and real estate transactions. Now we are leaving the pause mode and resuming our professional activity. On May 18th we started, in a first phase and with the proper social distance, making visits to the properties and we feel a fresh start of the activity. It is mainly since June1st though that, by maintaining the restrictions on our activity as ordered by the DGS, the resumption of activity was indeed possible, especially thanks to freedom of movement. The two-and-a-half-month period that has just passed has plunged all players in the sector - professionals, buyers, sellers, landlords, investors, tenants - into a virtual paralysis that digital tools only partially mitigated. What does the future hold after this brutal shock? What economic consequences will be felt in the coming months? No historical comparison is really relevant. But from September 2008 (Lehman Brothers bankruptcy) to the Spring of 2009, the housing market collapsed due to a lack of transactions, before adjusting rapidly from mid-2009 to summer 2011 (euro crisis). On the eve of a gradual return to normal life since the beginning of June, the outlook for the housing market is still hard to imagine. Has this pause imposed on our sector broken the positive momentum brought by sales volumes and real estate prices, which still present at the beginning of the year, and which was part of a favorable trend since 2016? Or will the health crisis create a lasting shock that will severely dampen activity and lower prices? There is no reason to assume that the real estate sector is not affected by the impact of a crisis that has destroyed the economy. However, the purchase of a property is an investment that represents many years of net income and for which the buyer can assume 20 or 25 years of debt. With the economic shock, this health crisis will inevitably affect the purchasing power of households, especially in the event of a nearly 10% increase in unemployment after lockdown. Comparing our market with some others especially in Asian countries that have already left the lockdown about 2 months ago, the market will in some ways suffer a drop in activity of about 30% compared to 2019, both for resale and for new purchases. This is because our 2020 real estate year will realistically have 9 months. With a loss of more than two months, expectations of a shrinkage in household incomes and a slowdown in lending, the number of real estate transactions will decrease. With the possible exception in the most emblematic and prime assets in larger cities such as Lisbon, Porto, Braga, Coimbra and the Algarve region. In tense markets such as our capital city – Lisbon - and the Algarve, there is not enough supply in relation to demand and the natural clientele has higher earnings and greater financial strength. We estimate that it is likely to see a correction and adjustment in prices of circa 5 to 10%. In medium-sized cities, our opinion is a little more close to that of idealista.pt which highlights a decline that can be twice as large, because the families living there sometimes have less solid financial situations. Text: Paulo Lopes
Patience is the word of virtue for real estate in Portugal!
Sellers should be patient as time goes by and the market adjusts to the effects of the crisis. It is said patience is a virtue. Property sellers trying to offload their properties during this COVID-19 crisis may have to take those words to heart. Mid-May is usually the time of year when homes tend to sell quicker, as spring represents a new life and personal fulfillment after the winter period. With the pandemic of the coronavirus and lock-down for nearly three months, the lack of foreign investors, the rising of unemployment rates and the likely economic downturn are dramatically slowing the housing market. In March we were still in full swing to achieve a record year, with a demand much higher than usual comparing to similar periods of the previous year, which in itself were already an extraordinary result for real estate in Portugal. Was all this in vain? And now because of a health crisis everything has changed? For buyers, it is now a phase of analysis and prospection to see how the housing market will react to this new reality. For sellers, it is a phase to be patient and it just means that they must be prepared to expect a much slower sales process. On Thursday 4th June there was a very interesting videoconference from SMARTUS, in which Margarida Caldeira of Broadway Malyan explains that in Asia the markets are already resuming a similar pace as before the crisis, and Francisco Horta e Costa of CBRE confirms that the effects of the crisis are already being surpassed gradually in countries such as China who were first hit by the new coronavirus and had to face the consequences on the economy much sooner. However, they have already resumed their economic activity a few months ago and show a significant recovery in the real estate business. Pedro Coelho of Square Asset Management also of the idea that the money for the investment has not disappeared, and that it will have to be applied, because there are no alternatives. There will certainly be new trends that we will have to follow in the real estate industry and we can learn from countries like Singapore, Taiwan and others in carrying out these new realities. The real estate market is not just a challenge for sellers. The number of new home listings also fell by 28% compared to the same period in 2019, as such it is more difficult for buyers to find the properties they are looking for. This may be surprising for many people, but prices have not gone down and, to date, prices remain at the same level as at the beginning of the year. And why is that? Although the economy is currently struggling and unemployment is rising as well as the high overall uncertainty, there are still more buyers than sellers. This imbalance could result in the keeping of prices in the coming weeks and months. This is also confirmed in the table below published by the website Idealista.pt showing the sales price variations in Portugal. TEXT: Paulo Lopes
A new study says that when there are no safe alternatives, real estate remains the best option!
Investment alternatives are lacking A study carried out in Germany says that the real estate boom will continue after the short phase of distrust partly thanks to the system of working on lay-off and telework. A Coronavirus pandemic has paralyzed economic life in Germany and across Europe for weeks. Real estate markets have also not managed to escape coming to a Halt. We shan’t forget that total real estate investment in Europe reached 85.5 billion euros in the first quarter of 2020, which represents an increase of 52% relating to same period last year, according to the latest data from global real estate consultant CBRE. This was a record performance for the European CRE in the first quarter, surpassing the previous record which dated from the first quarter of 2015. Temporarily, property prices in Germany will stagnate, Commerzbank research writes in a study, this also serves as an example for other EU countries. The record performance of the first quarter of 2020 that we have seen across Europe serves to highlight the strong appetite of global investors for real estate assets. The repercussions are expected to be significant only in the short term, with the ability and opportunity to emerge in the medium and long term as the sector begins its recovery. Real estate enters this period of uncertainty in good shape and will continue to perform well in the long run, because there are no investment alternatives. From a sectoral point of view, it is expected to continue to have a strong demand for commercial and residential assets across the European Union. The Commerzbank’s study anticipates that by 2021 prices will rise again. The reason for this clear statement is that the main drivers of the housing boom of recent years have not been lost according to the expectations. Citizens face temporary loss of income The Commerzbank study also has a message of comfort for workers. Since the inevitable loss of income resulting from the Coronavirus’ crisis is probably less than the fear of the imminent fall in gross domestic product. The authors refer to the experiences of the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009. In 2009, economic output (GDP) fell by circa 7%, but disposable income per capita decreased by only 2.5% in the fourth quarter of 2008. After that, they remained stable until the end of 2009. Since 2010, they have increased again, this trimming of public debts and high interest scenarios for some of the member states but not for all. This scenario will not be repeated according to the European financial policies that are moving towards a project to encourage the joint economy in the euro area. This will have a common effect, meaning that both Germany and the other member states will be side by side to get out of this crisis caused by the virus, and that after all, it is not a financial crisis, but a health crisis, with consequences on the economy of all member states of the European Union. House prices only temporarily under pressure The study states that it is highly likely that house prices in Germany will remain largely stable. The authors of the study do not want to overestimate the pressure on prices in the housing market caused by the Coronavirus’ crisis. They also point to a long-term trend: already in 2019, the increase in property prices in large cities has declined. This was also a fact in the Portuguese economy, in the last quarter of 2019 it was the first time that there was a downturn of prices compared to the same period of the previous year and the previous quarter. For the first time in a long time, growth rates fell short of average. ECB's loose monetary policy boosts house prices Commerzbank's study cites the "loose monetary policy of the ECB and other central banks" as an important factor in the recovery of housing markets. ECB President Christine Lagarde stressed that "there are no limits to our commitment to the euro." Similarly, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has adjusted its monetary policy. According to the authors, the trillions of central bank aid lead to "investments in real estate becoming increasingly attractive." In addition, currently exceptionally low construction interest rates make real estate affordable. The study refers to the so-called accessibility index. So, buying a house is cheaper than ever in the past, and this will not change in the medium term. Text: Paulo Lopes
Real estate: sales, prices... Where does the market go at the moment of unlocking?
It's been two weeks since the Portuguese government decided to take steps towards gradual deconfinement. Now we ask ourselves: "What now?" Have we been able to resume real estate activity after two months of confinement? What will the visits to the properties be like without the usual client proximity? How are the deadlines for the construction works that had to stop? What are the consequences for those who have already paid a reservation or want to buy? To answer all these questions and many others, we shall try to make a small snapshot of our experience of the last fortnight at Casaiberia. We cannot say that we have already reached pre-COVID19 figures, but we can say that the demand has not slowed down. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market and these are, in a way, the most influential factors in the coming weeks for prices and real estate activity. On the one hand, it is buyers waiting for bargains to come back to the market, and sellers wanting to keep the price announced earlier this year, when the Portuguese real estate market was on its way to reaching a new record for real estate transactions in the first quarter of the year. On the other hand, we now have a greater offer of new developments to be marketed in the Portuguese market, aimed at the medium and high range of purchasing clients. At the same time, a wave of old bad loans in the market is emerging, coming from the capital funds ventures that bought these portfolios in 2018 and 2019 in large quantities from the Portuguese banks. To add to this we have the health crisis that has changed a lot, but we hope to have not changed everything for the bad, but also some good. International and domestic demand for property in Portugal has not slowed down, as we have had much more demand in 2020 than in previous years. This is also due to the confinement of people and their interest in changing location, life and property. It has already been written in several national and international articles that teleworking will revolutionise the way people view their property in the future, and this will certainly cause many transactions in that direction, as we experienced in recent weeks. Visits to properties are also changing, and as such we are betting on the virtual visit to make a better selection for the client and limit visits to those properties of interest. We will invest in the promotion of the property with 360o images and virtual visits. In the long term we believe that the response of customers will be faster with regard to the final decision, because at this stage we are already experiencing a more objective attitude of the client that we believe will remain in the future. Most of the works have maintained their deadlines, we have no indication from our partners up-to-date that there may be delays in the construction works. However, and knowing that we are still facing a health crisis, everything can change in the event of a new wave of the outbreak. To sum up our experience of the last 10 weeks: Casaibéria will continue to invest in the digitalization of its services to the client, in the training of its largest capital - its employees - all over the country. The same people who did an excellent job during this period, and managed to increase the offer of Casaibéria by 162 properties during the time that the country was brought to an halt. On March 16th, 2020 with 440 properties published on our website, we all started working from home, and on May 30th we have 602 properties on our website. This is called "strength, courage, dedication, will to win, 24/7 service to your customers, and identity". Thank you all who are a part of this achievement. Text: Paulo Lopes Picture: Gerd Altmann by Pixabay
Investors will continue to target the real estate sector in the post-Covid-19 scenario
Consultant Savills predicts that real estate investor trends will continue in the post-Covid-19 scenario and says buyers will continue to circumvent risks through diversification and prices. Savills analyzed the key trends established to determine future global real estate investment activity in a series of articles and interviews released on May 18, 2020 under the Impacts research program. Savills International has studied the various critical social, environmental, demographic and technological aspects facing the global real estate sector more immediately. The conclusions were: Trade conflicts between the U.S. and China will influence cross-border activities for many years, regardless of U.S. leadership, thereby strengthening real estate investment opportunities in markets such as India,Vietnamand continental Europe. According to Savills, the global life sciences sector received $2.5 billion in investments in the five years to 2019; this sector is expected to grow following Covid-19, with potential opportunities in new markets such as India, Spain,Australiaand Austria. Low long-term interest rates will ensure that the real estate sector continues to be sought after as an asset class, with a discrepancy between capital reserves and low availability of high-quality stock, keeping competition high and yields low. According to Savills, while this year's current trade conflict between the U.S. and China is overshadowed by the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, it has already accelerated changes in global trade patterns. As Chinese production dislocated, freeing up large tracts of land for commercial and residential use on the outskirts of major cities, other countries benefited. Among them is Vietnam, where exports of products to the U.S. increased nearly 36 percent in 2019, making it the fastest-growing U.S. trading partner last year, as did India, Malaysia, Thailand and South Korea, according to the consultant. Industrial leases in Ho Chi Minh City districts, for example, increased 54% by June 2019, making it an important production market. India has also seen an increase in the occupation of the light industry, particularly in the automotive sector, with Blackstone and Brookfield among several investors who have already invested large amounts of capital in their real estate market. In addition to Asia Pacific, Savills says other countries, mainly Austria, Belgium, France and the Netherlands, also increased their trade share last year, signaling possible strengthening opportunities for real estate investors in those locations in certain sectors. In the long run, trade difficulties with the US may accelerate the formation of a regional free trade bloc; a Comprehensive Regional Economic Partnership consisting of 16 Indo-Pacific countries, including China, Australia, Japan, Indonesia and South Korea, which may well be signed this year, thus creating the world's largest free trade area. Savills believes this will increase wealth and stability, crucial elements for real estate investors. Real estate sector associated with the life sciences sector will be one of the fastest growing targets for investments Separately at Impacts, Savills points out that the real estate sector associated with the life sciences sector will be one of the fastest growing targets for investments, as companies in the sector seem poised to accelerate growth and become prevalent in more geographies. Savills notes that while the $2.5 trillion in venture capital investments (one of the main factors in future growth of the life sciences business and therefore meaning higher demand for real estate) have been focused on the U.S. and China over the past five years, countries that experienced particularly strong growth in 2019 include India (+ 180% aa) , Spain (+ 83% aa), Australia (+ 79% aa) and Austria (+ 453% aa *). These countries may not be on the radar of real estate investors yet for the life sciences sector, according to Savills, but they may potentially offer the opportunity to build a portfolio of investments around innovation clusters, including a diversity of real estate assets, from startup incubators, research and development facilities and even office buildings. Simon Hope, Global Capital Markets Director at Savills, comments: "The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on investor strategies is much less than the role it is playing in accelerating some underlying structural trends that have been developing for years. This includes growing demand for e-commerce, the fragility of global distribution networks - affected today by factory closures but increasingly by climate change - and the strengthening of a major new trading bloc in Asia and Australasia. Real estate investors need to continue to adapt to this uncertainty. Careful asset selection, diversification and correct long-term risk pricing will characterize those that succeed. The potential opportunities highlighted by Impacts in new geographies, such as India, Vietnam, innovative European cities and fast-growing sectors such as life sciences, are just some of the potential moves that can fit that profile." Paul Tostevin, Savills World Research Director and co-leader of the Impacts programme, adds: "In times of adversity, the real estate sector is perceived as a safe haven. With interest rates at minimum levels, there is still a lot of capital to be allocated, especially from institutional investors who need to look abroad to meet their allocations. The structural changes identified by Impacts bring opportunities: capitalizing on the disruption of e-commerce through retail redirection, opportunities for scientific advances and knowledge economics through a rapidly growing life sciences sector, and even opportunities under geopolitical changes through geographic changes arising from the U.S./China trade war. These are the previous critical points for Covid-19, but the recent pandemic means that some of these changes in the real estate sector may now have an extra boost behind them." Source: https://www.savills.com/insight-and-opinion/savills-news/300152/savills-impacts-forecasts-real-estate-investor-trends-likely-to-outlast-covid-19 Picture: PublicDomainPictures by Pixabay
I know a country...
" I know a country which in 30 years has gone from one of the worst in child mortality (80 per thousand) to the fourth lowest rate in the world (3 per thousand).Somewhere that in eight years became the second most important European register of bone marrow donors, which is essential in the fight against leukemic diseases. Who is a world leader in liver transplant and is in second place for kidney transplant.A country who is the world leader in the application of immediate implants and fixed dental prosthesis for toothless jaws.I know a country that has a company that has developed a software to become paperless while supporting the clinical registration in hospitals (Alert), and another that is one of the largest companies in the pharmacy computerization (Glint) and another that invented the first antiepileptic of Portuguese roots (Bial).I know a country that is the world leader in the renewable energy sector and the fourth largest producer of wind power in the world, which is also building the largest dams scheme (ten dams; EDP).I know a country that invented and developed the world's first-paid mobile phone payment system (PT), which is a world leader in identification software (NDrive), which has a company that fixes and detects the flaws of the NASA's computer system (Critical) and has the best business incubator in the world (Pedro Nunes Institute of the University of Coimbra)I know a country that puts shoes in the feet of a hundred million people around the world and produces the second most expensive footwear in the world, right after the Italian. And a country where innovative bed sheets are made, with different odors and anti-germ properties, in which circa 30 million Americans sleep in.I know a country that is the "state of art" in the plastic moulds and the world leader of energy transformers technology (Efacec) and that revolutionized the concept of toilet paper (Renova).I know a country that has one of the best ATM systems in the world and that has developed an innovative system of paying for highway tolls (Via Verde).I know a country that revolutionized the distribution sector, which wins awards for the construction of shopping centres in other countries (Sonae Sierra) and that leads the hard-discount sector in Poland (Jeronimo Martins).I know a country that manufactures the swimsuit that sprayed records at the Olympics in Beijing, which wore ten of the equestrian teams that participated in these Games; a country which is the world's largest producer of the world's kayaks, which has one of the best football teams in the World, its best coach on the planet (José Mourinho) and one of its best players (Cristiano Ronaldo).I know a country that has a Nobel Prize in Literature (José Saramago), one of the most notable interpreters of Mozart (Maria João Pires) and several internationally recognized painters and sculptors (Paula Rego, Júlio Pomar, Maria Helena Vieira da Silva, João Cutileiro ).The reader does not recognize in this country , the one that he/she lives in. This country is Portugal. It has all that is written above, a wonderful sun, a stunning light, fabulous beaches, great gastronomy. Welcome to this country you don't know: PORTUGAL." Text: Nicolau Santos Source: UP Magazine from TAP Image: António Francisco Calado by Pixabay; Bruno Madeira by Pixabay; Frank Nürnberger by Pixabay
Emigration - how life in a new homeland can be succcessful, here are some tips!
Emigration is much more than a fad. Those who leave their homeland usually have a good reason to do so. It is true that routes abroad have become more comfortable today. If you move your life to another country, you have to pay attention to more things than you think. What does Emigration mean? For some people it's the dream of a lifetime that they want come true. Often the idea starts with the beginning of a restful life in a country with sun and the beach, and if possible still during working age.However, most of the changes abroad take place after retirement. It does not matter when, but how, as there is much to consider before the dream of a carefree life abroad can finally come true. Living abroad as a worker or a pensioner? Every year, more than 1.7 million Europeans move to live abroad. Which country should they choose? The question is whether the reason for emigration is a new job or simply the dolce vita of retirement.If you go to work abroad, you have to take into account different aspects then those who are in retirement. Depending on the country chosen for the new life, it may be necessary to apply for a visa or residence status. After all, it will not be a three weeks' holiday, but a move to another country. In Europe, the embassies of the respective countries usually have information on their websites. Getting ready for your new home is essential It doesn't matter where you want to emigrate to; you need patience with the authorities and money. There are member states that require a minimum personal balance of five digits in order to have financial security. Health and social security systems vary greatly outside the European Union. If you travel within the Schengen area, all you need is your country's social security insurance. International health insurance can be an asset. There are a number of private insurers that advise emigrants and expatriates on this issue. Get tips on fiscal responsibility before moving Inform yourself about the payment of taxes, because even if you live in another country you can be taxed in your country of origin. Those who remain registered in certain EU countries will also pay tax on all their income there; even if the money was earned abroad. For example, if you register as a resident in Portugal, only money earned here will be taxed by the Portuguese Tax Authority, namely property income. Which are the most popular countries for emigrants? The Expats Insider Report 2019 puts Taiwan in first place, choosing the security of the country as an important criterion for this result. Vietnam and Portugal are in second and third place. Here are the top ten according to Insider Report 2019: Taiwan Vietnam Portugal Mexico Spain Singapore Bahrain Ecuador Malaysia Czech Republic Emigration to a low cost life The most popular countries for retirees to move to are countries with low living costs and good medical care, as well as virtual and human social network. Among them: Portugal Spain Mexico Greece Slovenia Dominican Republic Poland Hungary Austria However, there are very important points to be taken into account. Guide yourself through this checklist: How much money do you have? Valid identity documents Clarification of the situation regarding the issuing of a visa and/or residence permit Obtain other necessary documents (birth certificate, etc.) Confirm foreign health insurance Whether the country of origin has a social security agreement with the country of destination Cancel unnecessary telephone and insurance contracts on time Educate yourself about fiscal responsibility Basic language course of the destination country or enough English Learn more about the health system Know more about the school system if applicable Getting advice on emigration from a state-approved body When it comes to moving abroad, minimize. The abundance of personal property becomes expensive. Get offers from different specialized removal companies to the destination country. You can turn to groups of expatriates of your nationality on social networks to give you some tips. The most important thing is to keep in touch with your country of origin, because sometimes dreams are just that and the reality in a foreign country as well as your experiences can make you want to return to your origins. You may also want to go back for your grandchildren or for a relative who needs your help, you never know... Text: Paulo Lopes Picture: jacqueline macou by Pixabay
More demand than before the crisis on German real estate market: The Real estate market has already recovered from the Coronavirus
The German residential real estate market has apparently already more than recovered from the Coronavirus’ shock. Several reasons ensure that a new record level is partly reached. Only the sellers are still hesitant. For example, the nationwide real estate agent Homeday speaks of a "clear, positive trend": In the past two weeks, there have been an average of 20 percent more viewing requests and even up to 38 percent more purchase requests than before the outbreak of the pandemic in Germany. "Demand for residential property greater than before the crisis" The relevant Google searches around the purchase of real estate have also reached a new record level in view of the past 12 months. The slump in demand as a result of the Coronavirus’ crisis has "long since been overcome". "For about three weeks now, we have seen that interest in buying is back and that demand for residential properties is even greater today than it was before the crisis," explains Homeday Managing Director Steffen Wicker. Germans are looking for security and bargains The experts cite three reasons for the positive development. On the one hand, private investors would increasingly rely on real estate in times of crisis. In April, 44 per cent of investors interested in real estate said they wanted to invest in a property because it promised more security than equities, in a consumer survey conducted by market research firm YouGov on behalf of Homeday. Another reason could be the hope of prospective buyers for a crisis-related "bargain" in the real estate market, the experts say. According to the study, 39 percent of prospective buyers expect property prices to come under pressure as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, 37 percent expect a better interest rate on their real estate loans in the wake of the crisis. Sellers of real estate still sceptical "But neither we nor other real estate experts are seeing a real fall in the price of real estate right now. From our point of view, this is not necessarily to be expected," says Wicker. "Everything stands and falls as the pandemic progresses. With a somewhat gloomy course still, we expect it to be stable so to only slightly lower prices for residential real estate in Germany." In addition to the high demand, price stability is currently being helped by a reduced number of residential properties that are coming onto the market for purchase compared to the previous year. Although this trend is now positive again, the number of advertisements newly published per calendar week in Germany is currently still around 20 percent below the previous year's level. Note: The basis for the calculation is the evaluation of all published purchase offers of private residential properties in Germany from more than 350 sources, including all major real estate portals. Text: Paulo Lopes Picture: FelixMittermeier by Pixabay
The sale of houses and the economy: dependencies, risks and opportunities!
In most western countries, including Portugal, residential Real Estate contributes substantially to the economic activity: in our country the volume of residential transactions reached around EUR 25,000 million in 2019, corresponding to 11.80% of the GDP for the same year (EUR 212,300 million). It is also an important source of tax of significant amounts, normally, of secure and immediate collection. Note that in 2018 alone the Council Tax (IMI) was approximately one billion Euros, and the Transmission Tax (IMT) approximately one thousand seven hundred million Euros. This means a tax revenue in the property market of circa4% of the total tax revenue in Portugal. We all know, though, that residential Real Estate is volatile, as history and other overcome crises in Portugal may teach us. The most important fact during this is that fluctuations in prices and residential investment have a direct impact on the macroeconomic environment of our country and on the solvency of families and financial institutions. In the West, the vulnerability of the housing market is an amplifying element of the economic contraction, sometimes this vulnerability was the fuse that gave rise to these movements. On the other hand, a solid, stable, and balanced residential real estate market protects the economy from uncertainty and keeps the economy secure and firm. In the case of Portugal, this has been the case in recent years and has created the country's recent economic recovery. The aspects mentioned above, and often published, about how important the real estate market is for the sustainability and economic security of the country, are oddly often ignored by us, forgotten, or undervalued by governments everywhere. "The residential real estate market and its good functioning is essential for the health of economies and for their resilience in the medium and long term". Democratic governments have many tools to make the housing market work, supported and encouraged. One example should be that practiced in Germany: the individual who lets his/her or her house does not pay taxes on rental income, as he/she is providing housing space for society and others who may not have that possibility otherwise. At the same time, the owner of this property is preparing his or her well-being in the retirement phase by adding to his/her income based on the rents of their homes. If this model was followed in Portugal, it would create social housing space with adequate rents that is so needed by Portuguese society. Text: Paulo Lopes Picture: Raten-Kauf by Pixabay
Properties for sale
Go to Page Nº: