Casaiberia's opinion on the real estate market in the post-crisis period and at the present time!
Although the coronavirus pandemic is a human crisis, above all, it would be wrong not to give any opinion about it to our clients, about the implications it may have on the national and international real estate market, in the short and long term. We have understood over the last few weeks that now more than ever, clients need an honest assessment of the market. CASAIBERIA will continue to inform you about what is good and what may not be good in the purchase of a property by our clients and will help, as it has always done in the past, our clients to achieve the best possible terms in any purchase. That's why we thought we should go a little deeper into the Portuguese and international real estate market, which we have been studying carefully and not only since the beginning of the crisis, but for many years now. How was the national market progressing before the pandemic? According to some studies made in December 2019 the market was cooling down a little as a result of the rise in prices in the national real estate market. We are the country after the Philippines, where in the last quarter of 2019 prices rose more than in other countries worldwide. However, we are the fourth country in the list of those that were less indebted last year in the purchase of real estate, which means that the Investment is on the rise, and that in a certain way has not ceased to be relevant even with the Covid19 crisis. This trend is always based on a long-term strategy, which results in continued demand for real estate and investment in Portugal. This is said because the RICS and Confidencial Imobiliário study "The Portuguese Housing Survey", confirm this with the continued demand and increase in the months of January and February 2020. Therefore, no doubt it can be said that confidence and activity have returned throughout January and February. From our point of view the market will adjust a bit in prices, but in the long term the market will revive and within 12 months return to normal levels. Now what? The real estate market has reached a virtual standstill, that is, frozen because it lacks the possibility to be with the people and with whom it makes decisions in a personal way. We can't make viewings with the clients, but we show with our videos, who is like us confined, what awaits you. We have been doing business that was already underway, with the great help of our lawyers, friends and partners, whom I would like to thank in this way for their tireless support of our clients and their willingness to do deeds on behalf of the clients, who are sometimes confined abroad and who, with full confidence, let us handle everything on their behalf. Also a big thank you to the notaries and public notary who have been able to open their facilities for the realization of these businesses so important to us, CASAIBERIA, and our clients. And we continue to have demand and proposals from clients who have already been here or who have decided, based on the images and videos, to come forward with proposals to buy right after the crisis and move to our country. The same is happening with Investors, who have not stopped contacting us to analyze at this stage, how and when they will invest the capital they have available in a next real estate investment operation. During this phase of confinement and homework, CASAIBERIA and its employees have already managed to exceed the magic number of 500 properties for sale. This means that, from March 9 to April 16, with the help of the CASAIBERIA Team, we have managed to carry out 82 fundraisers taking into account that on March 9 there were 449 properties online and today there are 531 properties for sale. This is a clear sign that the market has not frozen, it is different and there are fewer people working, so we think that the time after the crisis will be the same, or little different, from the previous time for the Portuguese real estate market, and that if it does not normalize within the first two quarters, it will certainly return to normal after 12 months. Real estate investment is never, and never has been, in the short term but rather in the long term. A side effect of this pandemic is the return of many properties that were being rented, through the local housing scheme, to the long-term rental market. This will certainly bring down rental prices, but only this year, next year, they will return to the market again because seasonality will cause it, thus confirming our CASAIBERIA expectation that everything will normalise at the most within 12 months. Has COVID-19 already affected house prices? It is still too early to answer this question. However, the lack of product and the growing demand in recent years, combined with the delay in the licensing of works by municipalities and authorities responsible at the national level, may today be a very important factor so that there is no such brutal drop in prices as there was in the previous financial crisis. Therefore, we must realize that we are not in financial crisis, we are in Lockoff because of a pandemic, caused by a disease that spreads very quickly and especially affects the most vulnerable in our society! But it is also necessary to understand, so cold and rational, that derived from their age, their illnesses and other factors that make their immunity more limited than that of many others who overcome this disease. In reality, very few are investors or buyers of real estate, so it is only rational to resume that the age group that is currently less affected by the disease and will continue to follow their dream of having their own home, second home or simply investment to preserve their own lifestyle, that of their family and employees, will remain and with it their interest in investment. Property is an illiquid asset and housing prices are not subject to the daily fluctuations of the financial market. We assume, as CASAIBERIA, the idea that once the market reopens, there will be a time to discover the ideal price, because both sellers and buyers will need some time to digest this new situation. Once again it is necessary to assess that we are not in financial crisis, but in a Lockoff period to protect lives. The willingness to buy real estate will remain, because from the time of the stone man wants his own nest and his own walls, and it will not be COVID19 that will change this rudimentary and ancient instinct of human society. But the banks, who live off credits granted, will also reevaluate the acceptable level of risk. We CASAIBERIA with the meetings and brainstorming we've been having over the past few weeks hope that this will suppress transaction volumes in the first few months after the lockout. What will happen to housing prices? After all we can't, as CASAIBERIA, say what will happen with prices, because we don't have a crystal ball to look at. Nobody can predict at this time, or know the extent of the economic damage that COVID19 will cause, as well as all the effects that may be reflected in the markets. But we know that both the European Union, whose President Ursula von der Leyen was clear on this today, the Portuguese Government and all the other economic players in Europe want to secure their position and share in the international market, as well as employment and their multinational companies. We therefore believe, as CASAIBERIA, that in this area too there will be a necessary 12 to 24 months to return to normality. But we also see, as CASAIBERIA, some positive side effects, such as: the way in which Portugal is being seen in the international press, in matters of security and health safety compared with other countries in Europe. There is a change in the paradigm of employment at a distance, the environment and many other factors that may be beneficial to our sector. That said, this is our opinion, as CASAIBERIA and its team, on the real estate market in 2020. But everything has a worst-case scenario and we do not want, as CASAIBERIA, to ignore that possible scenario. Potential scenario: With rising unemployment many companies will seek to reduce wages - this will directly influence people's incomes and as a result there will be pressure on prices. However, this is all the trade unions don't want and the current government will seek to counter it! After large amounts of credit have been granted to companies to safeguard their workplaces and their activities, there will be an uncertain lending environment - will the banks impose stricter rules on the design of credits on individuals and companies, and will they be somewhat more conservative in their assessments? With economic losses already occurring in the international and national economy from the Lockoff phase for several months, there will also continue to be losses in the national and international economy as the world returns to normality after the virus. The IMF and other major international bodies are predicting the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. We Portuguese know that the IMF has not always been right in its expectations, at least for Portugal. But even at best, we cannot fail to see the reality of the economic losses. Clearly they are going to be very significant and the recovery is no longer predicted in the same way, with a "V" shaped recovery curve, CASAIBERIA no longer considers it the most suitable. Text: Paulo Lopes
WhatsApp may limit the duration of videos
Most of us are in physical isolation from the rest of the world, so applications like WhatsApp are the only way to contact the outside world for many of us. To ensure everything continues to work properly despite the growth in traffic, the WhatsApp status option is temporarily restricted in some countries. Coronavirus is affecting us all in a number of ways. Most of us are in physical isolation from the rest of the world, so applications like WhatsApp are the only way to contact the outside world for many of us. To ensure that everything continues to work properly despite the growth in traffic, the Whatsaap status option is temporarily restricted in some countries due to coronavirus. With over two billion users worldwide, WhatsApp is by far the most popular messaging platform, so it is extremely important that it works flawless. It has recently become known that the load on servers in WhatsApp is almost as high every day as it is during the New Year festivities. Anyone who sends New Year's greetings via WhatsApp at New Year's Eve knows that it sometimes works but with a delay. So to prevent this from happening during the coronavirus pandemic, WhatsApp has already increased the capacity of your infrastructure. In some countries, the status function is now restricted to relieve the burden - as WABetaInfo reports: "WARNING: It will not be possible to send videos in Whatsapp if they are longer than 16 seconds: only videos lasting 15 seconds will be allowed. This is happening in India and is probably an initiative to reduce traffic in the server infrastructure". As a result, whatsapp video duration will be reduced by half in some countries around the world. Before we could record 30 seconds, now it is only 15 seconds. This should result in significant relief, without the function having to be completely eliminated. It is only a temporary restriction that will be removed when the situation calms down". Text: Rainer Beck Sources: Android Geek-Portal Image of HeikoAL, em Pixabay.
There are good international signs for the real estate market
Even confined, the French do not give up their ambition to invest in their real estate projects The end of the restraint as announced by President Francés Emanuel Macron for May 11th is already giving impulses that were mentioned and served as the basis for a study published this Tuesday 14th April by the Drimki property appraiser. Most French people do not give up on their real estate project, even during the confinement period they have maintained the idea of continuing with their ambition to invest in real estate. This is essentially what emerges from the study published and done by the Drimki property expert. In essence the study speaks of the period at the end of March, in which 15% of the French said they were committed and would not give up on a real estate project within the next twelve months. We need to know that we are talking about two percentage points less than in February, when there was 17% of French people who stated this position. But this drop in enthusiasm is relatively insignificant as to the period in which this study was done in the midst of popular confinement because of the Covid19. The study also confirms that in every six French respondents one of them has a real estate project in their drawer, or the ambition of carrying out the acquisition of a real estate asset in the next 12 months, despite the compulsory collection of the state of emergency, as Drimki summarizes in his study. https://infogram.com/confinement-et-projet-immo-drimki-al-1h7z2lg0pgjg4ow It is not surprising, but in a way it is a small surprise for those who know the subject, that the executives of the real estate promoters maintain the greatest enthusiasm for the success and development of their current and future real estate projects. In fact, it seems to us as a rock category of the population whose determination remains intact, despite the period that the economy is going through. Among the French who have not abandoned their real estate investment project (interviewed this time at the end of March), 40% are buying for the first time, 19% are investors who wish to buy a property to rent it and 8% are in search of a second home. Only 5% of respondents say they want to sell a house without buying another back. https://infogram.com/confinement-et-projet-immo-drimki-2-al-1hd12y0lxpnw6km
Some tips to overcome the Housing Crisis may be as follows:
(A) 'the Communication' means It's normal that we want to stick ourselves in a hole and see if the storm passes without it affecting us. However this human reaction is not seen in a good light because it works with us, so we have to communicate. When communicating we have to be true, transparent and sensible, otherwise nobody trusts us in the moment and the post-crisis time. We are doing it for ourselves and for our employees, clients, family and friends, because if we don't "communicate" they may think the worst that we have already stopped working and fighting for them. Be transparent and honest let everyone know what's going on; even if you can't articulate a solution right now, it shows you're working on it. Invest time in everyone and every part that has accompanied you in your professional life, talk to your clients and your key people. They will appreciate your attitude and will give you the vital support that you will need. Make time for personal phone calls with your partners and key people, you will be compensated. The more you communicate, the more you will realize how others are needing to talk to you as well, it will be compensated after the crisis by them to you. B) "Involve your team and your clients in the solution" By involving your team and your clients so they can be part of the solution. You'll somehow involve hundreds of people, it may perish as a crazy idea, but the truth is that by involving so many people you involve a lot of different talents and knowledge from unique points of view. With a different view of the problem and its solution, but your clients when they participate really want to help you find a solution and will offer you valuable ideas. Give them a platform and you'll be surprised at the result. It's somewhat different than usual, but the times are also very different from usual, so approach your whole team and in the end it will be them and them in common work and effort that will save your project. C) "Optimize resources" You can only work with a 100% dedicated team committed to helping the business and customers, you can't afford to deal with team members who don't show that! You and your team must be a unit willing to do things never done before and not look at the job description in the job contract, here only the safeguarding of the proper place of work and all colleagues counts, we are all in the same boat. In these times of today the philosophy of "servant/leader" is fundamental to establish trust and take advantage of the contributions of stakeholders, creditors and clients. D) "Focus on the message you want to convey to your clients". Show creativity in your marketing, focusing on your employees, customers and business partners and even on income streams that have not been considered before.Lean on your best communicators in your company. Leverage internal talent, give more freedom of expression and knowledge transmission than in previous times. You will thus create energies and synergies never before seen, because there was no such freedom because there were too many daily rhythms and rituals that now in telework no longer exist. Focus and execute! E) "There was always a solution to all problems!" Problems are not coded, and it will not be now that we need an ENIGMA to solve the problems we face. We need to analyse "THE PROBLEM" and come up with a solution by evaluating it and choosing a way to solve it. This was the case before COVID19 happened, and it will be the case even after it disappears. Man is creative in his way of solving problems, whether in stone times when the first fire was created, or in times of taking us to the Moon. Everything has a solution! Solutions must always be win/win solutions, prurem the solution, talk to friends, colleagues, customers and employees and the light will appear at the end of the tunnel, I have this personal conviction and I live it in my daily life. Conclusion: The situation of each and every colleague may be different, but it may also be likely that your colleagues are feeling the same way as you do at the moment. Go ahead, open paths, be a LEADER and apply your knowledge. These are the times that define you as a person and a professional, now is the time when the litter separates from the wheat, and only those who go down the road of differentiation survive. I hope to have been able to make a little contribution in times of COVID19 to the motivation of my professional class and all the other Entrepreneurs in Portugal. I will continue on my way in the attempt to keep the moral high, that I can convince many that this is not the end of the world, but a challenge for everyone to stay on the path. "STAY ON THE PATH!" Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
Cautions about teleworking
The fact that millions of people around the world work at a distance has created an environment susceptible to attempted theft of private information from businesses.Video conferencing platforms are therefore currently being targeted by cybercriminals. The increased use of these platforms, including Zoom, has caught the attention of hackers, who have quickly found a way to detect and enter active meetings, having access to everything that is said. One international cyber security company has found that in recent weeks there has been a large increase in domain registrations including the word "Zoom": 1700 since the beginning of the year, 25% of them in the last week alone. With millions of people around the world working at a distance due to the covid-19 pandemic, Zoom has become a daily companion. This videoconference program, created in 2011 by a Chinese citizen who emigrated to the United States, allows up to 500 people to gather in "the same room". In Portugal, it has become an essential tool for remote education. From the first cycle to higher education, millions of students sit every day in front of the computer to follow their classes through Zoom. Among the companies, it's enough to say that it is used by more than 60% of Fortune 500 companies. The secret is still the soul of the business With so much business to be done virtually and digitally, there are some security measures that it is essential to maintain. E-mails from unknown senders, especially if they offer discounts, are always to be suspected. The most prudent thing is not to open unknown attachments or click on links. It is also essential to be careful with similar domains and email,s or websites with misspellings. When you shop, make sure you're buying goods from a secure source and don't get carried away by promotional links, that promise you everything at no cost. It's good to remember that 90% of cyber attacks start with a "phishing" campaign, an online fraud technique through which computer criminals try to "fish" for passwords and personal information. Being the most pirated at the moment, Zoom is not, however, the only target of hacking. New phishing sites have been discovered for all major communication applications, including Google's "Classroom". Text: Rainer Beck Source: Radio Renascence
Throughout time, and for various reasons, architecture has been transformed to make everything we know as physical history. In the last 2000 years, we have realized how much architecture adapts, either by the constructive form abandoning the large blocks of stone and adopting lighter form and materials, or by the climatic needs where these changes require a new model of architectural development, or simply by necessity, as our priorities change throughout history. Wars, droughts, plagues among other catastrophes have changed the narrative of how architecture presents itself. A good example is "brutalism", an architecture that gains strength from mass destruction and housing shortages in much of Europe after World War II. Another example is Japanese buildings, whose architects and engineers, already accustomed to earthquakes, create damping systems to keep buildings standing, even if the earthquake is of great magnitude. Historical events have a direct reflection on the way we live and inhabit, this suggests that - at the current time of pandemic, where we can barely leave home - we will have to rethink our form of architecture and society even more. Perhaps more open spaces with greater air circulation or use of aseptic materials, in order to make our homes more resistant to any external conditioning. Even more important will be to use technology for sustainable and nature-conscious construction. Perhaps the secret right now is to focus on one question: How would we like to live in the coming years? The importance of architecture Architecture, as we know it, is not always able to provide immediate answers to the problems that society faces. Yet, in one way or another it is always present, to show how the world evolves. In times of pandemic, building facades and large monuments become important vehicles of communication in all countries, not only to send a message of support and hope, but also to alert everyone to the needed precautions to take at this time. During the pandemic in which we live, China, started using this tool, which until then was used only for marketing. Countries like Brazil, Egypt, United Arab Emirates among many others, used the same artifices, with the use of LED screens and super projectors, giving even more life to these monuments. Therefore, we cannot give all the credit for this practice to current events, however, it reminds us that architecture, directly or indirectly, was and always will be one of the oldest ways to tell the history of mankind. Text: Ricardo Cavichioni Source: Jornal El Pais
Tenants and landlords - COVID19
At the moment many people may be experiencing a situation of apprehension about the payment or receiving of their rent, during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Assembly of the Republic was not insensitive to the issue and approved the exceptional regime for situations of late payment of the rent, during the pandemic. The law creates a model of protection for tenants and landlords in cases where it is possible to verify the decrease of income exceeding 20%, for any of them. In order to benefit from this measure, tenants must inform the landlord by writing a notice within 5 days prior to the payment of the rent. In addition to the notification, the applicant must deliver the documentation supporting the condition - a salary receipt to prove the loss of income, for example. In the case of non-residential lease: "This law covers establishments open to the public, which have been forced to close or have their activities suspended by the declaration of the State of Emergency, and they are granted the right to defer payment of rent due (during the State of Emergency and in the first month following) to the 12 months after that period, in monthly payments". As previously mentioned, the landlord was also contemplated in the law in question, and with regard to the non-residential lease, the regime provides for it: "Landlords who suffer a loss of more than 20% of their income and that loss is caused by the non-payment of rents by the tenants, may request the grant of a loan, without interest, to compensate the amount of the monthly rent, due and unpaid, whenever the remaining available income of the household diminishes, for such reason, below IAS". Having said that, one important matter is when these measures are implemented. According to the new regime, the measures must be implemented from 1 April 2020. Text: Cleyton Oliveira Sources: Almeida Caeiro – Lawyers
Real estate sees a brake on rising prices, but doesn't feel a break on sales
With volatile stock markets and an extended interest rate policy at historically low levels, it may allow a faster recovery in the real estate sector than in others. This is the perception of many professionals in the sector, so the idea is that prices will stabilise but not fall. A state of emergency has been decreed in Portugal for 3 weeks now, with the measures to contain the pressure on the property market already weighing on companies. Postponing investment decisions, suspending real estate operations and transactions and falling demand are some of the trends already felt by us CASAIBERIA and our real estate professional colleagues. But, unlike many other sectors, this sector remains optimistic about the future of the sector. With low interest rates and a volatility in the stock markets, which is always repeated historically when there are international crises, companies and real estate entrepreneurs as well as us, CASAIBERIA, believe in maintaining the interest of investors, which we believe will lead to a rapid recovery and stabilization of prices in the real estate market in Portugal. But of course it is very difficult to predict the evolution of the next months and of the market, not least because the most recent official data, from the National Institute of Statistics (INE), refer to the third quarter of 2019. At that time, the median price of houses sold in Portugal was 1,054 euros per square meter, a new historical maximum. We are realistic and know that real estate performance in 2020 will not be the same as in 2019. However, 2019 was a record year and if we can achieve the figures of 2018 or even 2017 we are still at a high level. Just remember the following figures, in commercial real estate alone, investment exceeded 3,550 million euros, to which were added 1,500 million in land and rehabilitation in 2019. Someone will believe it will continue because the investment is always made in the long term, and with the stock markets shaking, only concrete gold is left as an alternative. That is why and because of the information that CASAIBERIA obtains every day from its partners and international business friends, we are convinced that we will overcome this chalice, and that it will make us even better and stronger at the service of our customers. However, we have had a lot of contact with investors showing that their interest has not slowed down, which, together with other factors, will allow a quick recovery. We believe as CASAIBERIA that the real estate market will recover within one Year after the pandemic. Investors will return to the market in force, because of the factors already indicated, low interest rates, volatile stock market and a lot of capital in the market with no alternative in the application of the same. So let us continue on the path for the good of our clients and the CASAIBERIA Team.
13 real estate developers were challenged to answer 4 questions
13 real estate developers were challenged to answer these questions: Do they maintain 100% activity? Have the works stopped or slowed down? And the rest of the business, especially the planning and sales? What is the strategy to deal with and react to the pandemic crisis? What is the role of technology? What to expect from the real estate development business in the short and medium term? How is investor interest in national real estate evolving? And what prospects do they have at this level? These questions were asked to 13 national real estate developers by O Idealista portal and the answer was somewhat unanimous, with a positive attitude, confidence in the future, not to give up, not to stop, to continue working, planning and structuring the future. In general they all keep their works running, the main difficulties being sometimes related to the management of suppliers, who given the national framework due to the pandemic many of the materials are arriving late or sometimes fail at the work sites. However, and taking all the precautions that are required, they all generally keep their works running at almost 100%. Regarding the strategy, the use of technologies for meetings, contacts, virtual visits, since everyone has their back office's in telework, thus enhancing their activity, as well as creating new working habits using tools that always existed, but had never been enhanced. Also enabling in this way, creating new challenges for their teams, developing new strategies and planning for the future. Analysing and adjusting procedures and projects seems to be a common factor for all when it comes to short and medium term real estate development, the duration of this crisis being the most critical point in this industry, but it is also certain and assumed that in times of crisis real estate is always an asset refuge class. The medium and high segments will be less affected and a return to normality is expected within 2 to 12 months, with the lower segments having a longer recovery period. It has been mentioned by several entities during recent times that investors interest in the domestic market would remain unchanged. Obviously in the overwhelming majority of cases there is now some delay in both decision making and formalisation. For obvious reasons, however, and it is assumed by all, that this interest is maintained, and there are even formalizations either of purchase or of promissory contacts, as attested by some of the inquired parties. Just as we CASAIBERIA, as the perspectives of these promoters, are that we will come out of this crisis in a stronger way and in better conditions to seize the future. Source: The Idealist
Forbes says Portugal is one of the best destinations for foreigners to live after Covid-19
Where to live and retire overseas after Coronavirus? Forbes, the American magazine, puts Portugal at the top of the list, electing the Algarve region, followed by Mazatlan in Mexico and Cayo in Belize. "Considered from a post-crisis perspective, where in the world will offer the best options for repositioning yourself overseas? Diversifying your lifestyle and your investment portfolio to embrace the many opportunities our world continues to offer is a more important agenda than it's ever been. The way to make sure you're prepared for whatever tomorrow brings is to expand where you spend your time and your money so you’re not at the mercy of any single government, economy, marketplace, or currency." the news reads. With the big questions about life and what we can make the best use of hovering over our heads in this time of crisis, the magazine elects three destinations that are envisaged for health, self-resilience and sense of community. The Algarve region in Portugal is the magazine's first choice. It chooses tranquility, climate, safety, good infrastructure, the health at international standards, its beaches, golf, the cost of living, language, healthy living and benefits for pensioners, and the advantage of being able to live in Portugal with circa €1,300 per month. "Portugal offers the most attractive residence option in the Euro Zone," it reads. Following Portugal are Mazatlan in Mexico and Cayo in Belize. Source: Diario Imobiliário April 6, 2020
Properties for sale
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