More demand than before the crisis on German real estate market: The Real estate market has already recovered from the Coronavirus
The German residential real estate market has apparently already more than recovered from the Coronavirus’ shock. Several reasons ensure that a new record level is partly reached. Only the sellers are still hesitant. For example, the nationwide real estate agent Homeday speaks of a "clear, positive trend": In the past two weeks, there have been an average of 20 percent more viewing requests and even up to 38 percent more purchase requests than before the outbreak of the pandemic in Germany. "Demand for residential property greater than before the crisis" The relevant Google searches around the purchase of real estate have also reached a new record level in view of the past 12 months. The slump in demand as a result of the Coronavirus’ crisis has "long since been overcome". "For about three weeks now, we have seen that interest in buying is back and that demand for residential properties is even greater today than it was before the crisis," explains Homeday Managing Director Steffen Wicker. Germans are looking for security and bargains The experts cite three reasons for the positive development. On the one hand, private investors would increasingly rely on real estate in times of crisis. In April, 44 per cent of investors interested in real estate said they wanted to invest in a property because it promised more security than equities, in a consumer survey conducted by market research firm YouGov on behalf of Homeday. Another reason could be the hope of prospective buyers for a crisis-related "bargain" in the real estate market, the experts say. According to the study, 39 percent of prospective buyers expect property prices to come under pressure as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, 37 percent expect a better interest rate on their real estate loans in the wake of the crisis. Sellers of real estate still sceptical "But neither we nor other real estate experts are seeing a real fall in the price of real estate right now. From our point of view, this is not necessarily to be expected," says Wicker. "Everything stands and falls as the pandemic progresses. With a somewhat gloomy course still, we expect it to be stable so to only slightly lower prices for residential real estate in Germany." In addition to the high demand, price stability is currently being helped by a reduced number of residential properties that are coming onto the market for purchase compared to the previous year. Although this trend is now positive again, the number of advertisements newly published per calendar week in Germany is currently still around 20 percent below the previous year's level. Note: The basis for the calculation is the evaluation of all published purchase offers of private residential properties in Germany from more than 350 sources, including all major real estate portals. Text: Paulo Lopes Picture: FelixMittermeier by Pixabay
The sale of houses and the economy: dependencies, risks and opportunities!
In most western countries, including Portugal, residential Real Estate contributes substantially to the economic activity: in our country the volume of residential transactions reached around EUR 25,000 million in 2019, corresponding to 11.80% of the GDP for the same year (EUR 212,300 million). It is also an important source of tax of significant amounts, normally, of secure and immediate collection. Note that in 2018 alone the Council Tax (IMI) was approximately one billion Euros, and the Transmission Tax (IMT) approximately one thousand seven hundred million Euros. This means a tax revenue in the property market of circa4% of the total tax revenue in Portugal. We all know, though, that residential Real Estate is volatile, as history and other overcome crises in Portugal may teach us. The most important fact during this is that fluctuations in prices and residential investment have a direct impact on the macroeconomic environment of our country and on the solvency of families and financial institutions. In the West, the vulnerability of the housing market is an amplifying element of the economic contraction, sometimes this vulnerability was the fuse that gave rise to these movements. On the other hand, a solid, stable, and balanced residential real estate market protects the economy from uncertainty and keeps the economy secure and firm. In the case of Portugal, this has been the case in recent years and has created the country's recent economic recovery. The aspects mentioned above, and often published, about how important the real estate market is for the sustainability and economic security of the country, are oddly often ignored by us, forgotten, or undervalued by governments everywhere. "The residential real estate market and its good functioning is essential for the health of economies and for their resilience in the medium and long term". Democratic governments have many tools to make the housing market work, supported and encouraged. One example should be that practiced in Germany: the individual who lets his/her or her house does not pay taxes on rental income, as he/she is providing housing space for society and others who may not have that possibility otherwise. At the same time, the owner of this property is preparing his or her well-being in the retirement phase by adding to his/her income based on the rents of their homes. If this model was followed in Portugal, it would create social housing space with adequate rents that is so needed by Portuguese society. Text: Paulo Lopes Picture: Raten-Kauf by Pixabay
Can the coronavirus change the Real Estate market? I'm not sure.
According to our website and studies already published by several Real Estate portals, during the last few weeks, THERE WILL BE A CHANGE IN THE PARADIGM OF THE SEARCH FOR REAL ESTATE FOR THE FAMILY. The current crisis will certainly profoundly and sustainably alter the real estate projects of the Portuguese, with new purchase criteria taking into account the difficulties experienced during this period of confinement. After 2 months of confinement, some families are starting to walk in circles in apartments that are very small. With the inability to get outside, the lack of outdoor space is weighing heavily, especially with the arrival of spring. The coronavirus outbreak has also changed our perspective of what we want for our family. This period has opened our eyes to the need to live better, in more space, even if we have to change careers and location to have a better quality of life and safety for ourselves and our own. Some of the priority criteria that we think have changed are the following; a) Outer space has become one of the most important criteria. One third of those who are now looking for accommodation want it to be quiet and close to nature. For 17%, the proximity of the dwelling to the workplace has become less important in their purchasing criteria. Perhaps this is a consequence of the increase in teleworking, to which many employees are getting used; b) Indoor space is of greater importance when it comes to having space to work at home, and being able to breathe outdoors and exercise. In cramped apartments in the city, the Portuguese have a desire for a country house. Although a mass exodus from cities is unlikely in the short term, outdoor dreams are driving internet users to search for homes. Can we anticipate a massive departure from cities to the countryside after this experience? Perhaps not. For some, containment was the trigger to buy the house they had long dreamed of. For others, the containment phase may soon be forgotten and they will decide to stay put. However, there will be a large percentage of people who will wait to see if prices go down before taking a stand. Text: Paulo Lopes Picture: Nicole De Khors by Burst
Are apps really useful when buying or selling a property?
Are you thinking of buying a property or maybe you own one and would like to sell it? Want to know how much this property is worth? No problem, it's quick and easy from home - at least more and more property valuation apps promise that. The App Stores are full of digital helpers. Some of them are completely free, while others demand money for a valuation. But how effective are them? Can we really trust the result or just get confused? Just add some photos and - BAM - your property's value shows ups! However, in order to use such applications, it is usually necessary for users to provide various private data, such as name, email or telephone number, property registration and other data that we usually only provide to those we know. Afterwards, a photo of the property is uploaded and the value is displayed. However, the photos are not really decisive. They are only used for artificial intelligence to determine whether the object is an apartment or a house. On the other hand, other information, such as the transmitted GPS data, comes to the surface, because, above all, it is the location that determines the value of a property, you are giving your postal address again to those you do not know. Manually, data such as dimension of the property, year of construction or number of rooms must be specified. Do these applications provide serious information? I believe that property valuation apps have to be looked at with caution. Since the valuations are based on some criteria and important parameters are missing here, which may lead to questionable results. The applications cannot therefore be used for a serious valuation, they can satisfy the spontaneous curiosity of anyone interested in a valuation of their property. But obviously this is not the purpose of digital helpers, they should give an indication.. So to get an approximate overview, applications for the valuation of a property are generally good, but they will not replace a detailed valuation made by a professional on site. Because experience and therefore a professional consultant usually should be the choice. Meta data alone will not enlighten us about the value of a property, because the consultant's experience to analyse the characteristics of the property, such as location, neighbourhood, conditions of the property, investments to be made, etc., are the database of the experience of the professional real estate agent and his team. Text: Paulo Lopes Picture: Gerd Altmann by Pixabay
How the German real estate market responded in the face of Coronavirus
The German real estate market has been showing a cohesive structure throughout the Coronavirus crisis. The sale and rental prices of the houses have so far remained fairly stable during this period. How does the Coronavirus crisis affect sale and rental prices for German homes? So far,data on this matter has been available mainly about the period before the impact of the coronavirus crisis and the economic blockage associated with containment policies had not yet had its full effect, i.e. from the first quarter of 2020 or March. These data showed only a small impact of the crisis on market development. This is also the trend shown in the April data that is now available, about the sale and rental prices of houses. April is the first month in which the crisis has been constantly present. This seems to confirm what experts have been predicting for some time: housing markets are much less frantic in their response to external shocks, such as the closing of the stock market, for example. On the contrary, the effects will be felt with some delay and also - as we can see at the moment - in a less severe way. According to the Europace real estate financing platform, which holds around 15% of the real estate financing for private clients in Germany, the price increase for apartments as well as for existing houses and new construction slowed down in April. However, as in previous months, prices continued to rise, both in comparison with the same period last year. Text: Translation of the online magazine article Manager Magazin; "So robust geht der Immobilien-Markt durch die Corona-Krise" Sources: https://www.manager-magazin.de/finanzen/immobilien/so-robust-geht-der-immobilienmarkt-durch-die-corona-krise-a-1306942.html
Think, choose and invest
Think, choose and invest Buying a house is one of the most important decisions in citizen's life. The acquisition of a property may be for your own use or may be seen as a good investment. As far as profitability is concerned in the residential segment in prime areas, it can vary between 4% and 5%. The saying "New year, new life" already puts it out there; one way to take this expression to the word may be by investing in a new home, but in the current situation we may revisit the saying, changing it to:" Covid-19, new life". There are, however, some factors that must be taken into consideration when moving on to buy a house, so as to be able to save a few more euros and not run the risk of running into debt. On the other hand, the purchase of a house can also be a good source of income. Learn how to analyse all the aspects necessary to make the best choice for you. I advise you to: Think about the purchase price If you have a very low purchase budget, search for information and only then choose. One of the ways to find houses at lower prices is in the auctions carried out by the tax authorities, in properties taken by insolvency or bank repossessions. If you choose to buy more than one, be aware that there are advantageous financing conditions, which in some cases can be up to 100% finance. However, these properties may be in need of work or have other conditions that require further analysis. Above all, please inform yourself before buying. If your decision is to buy a house you can start saving in advance to get a good down payment. This will make it easier for you to obtain financing and thus pay back the loan in less time. With this measure you will also be able to pay lower installments, as well as save on interest. Don't take a bigger bite than you can chew Before moving on to buying a house, review your monthly budget and make an account of your monthly expenses, so that you know how much you can spare for the loan. Only buy the house if it is possible, to avoid unnecessary problems in the future. Apply the same scenario applies when choosing a house as you do when doing a relation of your monthly expenses. Do not buy a house that you cannot afford or that is too big for your needs. Opt for a space that is suitable for your household and that will not break your bank in the future. When choosing a house After putting all your ducks in a row and realizing that it is feasible to purchase a house, it is time to choose the house. Choose Casaibéria Mediação Imobiliária, which can help you find the property you want and also help you compare the conditions of bank financing, which may prove to be more advantageous for you. The location of the property may be beneficial when looking to save and invest in the purchase of a house, so I advise to look for areas where supply is lower than demand, i.e. where prices during the crisis have not dropped more than 10%. Considering that the purchase is made from an investment perspective, the yields (profit margins) which, as a rule, "are associated with small amounts, which are never less than 200 thousand euros", making it "difficult to find investments in direct real estate below this value", When comparing the weight of profit and savings, it is necessary to "try to understand, for example, what rent will generate an apartment of 100 thousand euros. If you get an annual rent of one thousand euros you are making a bad investment, because there are alternative investments that give you more income", however, "if you get a 10% return you are making a great investment, because the return doubles". This is because "the typical return on residential investment is between 4% and 5% in prime zones. If you get a return above that, you're clearly doing a good deal." Another analysis you should do is "to understand whether you are buying, in terms of square meters, below or above the price of the area. If it's above this is a bad deal, unless that apartment has some distinguishing feature, like a garden". As mentioned above, the real estate agent can help in an investment more suited to your financial and profitability interests. One of the cases is Insolvency, where you can buy and invest in a type of property or properties at a lower cost than the market values, because after this Covid-19 Crisis, there may be more offer of properties from insolvency, providing an ideal time to invest. Understand when to make a good investment The purchase by bidding will have a higher return than the Bank, where the real estate at auction, coming from insolvency and seizures, can and are already being purchased on the spot. Regardless of Covid-19, this business continues to attract many Portuguese and, when assets of great value appear, it also attracts foreigners and investment funds. The objectives are various, from purchase for second homes, rehabilitation for sale or rent and tourism. The return of investment to the sector will inflate prices. The identities confirm that the Portuguese are "applying their savings in real estate assets" and "seeking public auctions to make these investments", in an attempt to obtain higher returns compared to what the banks offer today. In other words, "It's a balancing process. The banks take fewer deposits, but recover credits". The Order of Solicitors and Enforcement Agents (OSAE), leads the number of investors to "believe that the market has gone from the normal speculator to the investor, people with a rapid capacity for debt or own funds". There has been "magnificent growth, above all expectations". According to LeiloSoc, it put 1200 properties on the market last year, with a total value of around 20 million euros. The greatest share (85%) was bought by Portuguese. Currently, the portfolios no longer have toxic assets, however 60% relate to insolvency of families and 40% to companies, where the trend is to reverse. A few weeks ago, LeiloSoc promoted an auction, which assets increased by 30%. "People are willing to buy". Sales to foreigners continue to exist, but "these are sales of premium real estate, where a group of investors is invited to analyze the assets that are usually buildings with tourist or commercial development, which are in insolvency process". In the previous year there were 56,573 bids, resulting in sales of 482 million euros. For Luís Lima, president of the real estate association APEMIP, "the auctions are a phenomenon of the time of crisis". He considers that "the profile of the buyer has changed, it is someone who is looking for a good deal". There's a health crisis at the moment, but it's not all bad news. In fact, the number of individual insolvencies has fallen and the number of companies has increased, so there may be the possibility of good investments in the future. Text: José Costa Sources: Portail Citius ; APEMIP ; OSAE - Order of Solicitors and Execution Officers ; APLARTE - Portuguese Association of Auctioneers ; Picture: mastersenaiper by Pixabay
How can covid-19 redesign the contours of the real estate market?
The near non-existence of real estate transactions at the moment makes it difficult to forecast the evolution of real estate prices, but professionals are already noticing some strong indicators and trends of recovery. This, if the need for containment does not continue. There is one point on which everyone agrees, the year 2020 will no longer be a record year as was predicted in the first two months. After two consecutive record years, 2020 will see a sharp drop in the number of transactions. Spring is one of the most important seasons of the year: 15 to 25% of annual sales usually occur between mid-March and late April. After May 18, there may be a catch-up effect, but this delay cannot be absorbed. Completion of open sales will take several weeks and the summer may be quieter than usual, according to forecasts from notaries and lawyers. It will then be necessary to know what can be achieved and assess the real extent of the economic crisis, which will follow the health crisis. In any case, even the most optimistic observers do not expect a full reboot, but we are convinced that by the end of 2020 the Real Estate market will return to figures similar to those of the end of 2019. In a survey of real estate brokers operating in Portugal, the Portuguese Association of Real Estate Professionals and Companies (APEMIP) assessed the impact that COVID-19 had on this sector during the month of April. The results of this survey are indicative of the reality that real estate brokers have gone through in the last month. 50% of the companies surveyed totally suspended their activity and in 45.8% this suspension was partial. 95.3% indicated a drop in turnover in April and a drop in demand of circa 92.5%. In addition, 62.7% of the companies revealed that the percentage of withdrawals by customers from ongoing transactions was 19.8%, even giving up on the purchase after signing the Promissory Contract of Sale and Purchase. "These figures show that activity was practically halted during the month of April. Soon official figures will be revealed that will confirm this reality: we were closed due to the national emergency lock-down plan, but we are aware and we are pleased with the effectiveness that the measures taken are having in slowing down the curve of the spread of the epidemic " says the President of APEMIP, Luís Lima, who is pleased with the reopening of the real estate mediation companies in this first phase of deconfinement. We, Casaiberia, were open via teleworking and telephone during this period, so we only had a fall in demand of 34.6% and we believe in a market recovery by the end of 2020, at the same level as in the last quarter of 2019. Text by: Paulo Lopes Picture: Jörg Hertle by Pixabay
Portugal - the country of all charms
When we travel the country from North to South and if we have the opportunity at each point to contact with a local, we certainly will not leave that part of the country without getting to know about a charming story, a superb delicacy, an unforgettable landscape or a regional music. It is certain and known that everything seems to have already been said about our country, the famous "corner planted by the sea", full of sun, good people and friendly traditions. Owner of an unparalleled historical and cultural heritage, this country gathers the most beautiful mountains and the vastest plains, a unique coast and a very rich gastronomy. To know this nation is a unique privilege which once experienced will not be forgotten. It is with pride and vanity that we listen to the reasons why our clients, coming from all corners of the world, intend to live here, be one of us, learn the language and get to know Fado. I fondly remember an experience that involved two French clients / friends who, after buying their beautiful villa - which they decided to call "A Casa" (portuguese for The House) - asked me for help in a route to get to know the Alentejo. In a journey all done on two wheels, the photos taken in each stop were sent to me as well as the description of the smells they felt, the taste of the traditional dishes, the unmistakable wine and the Cante (folk lament) they heard in village taverns. This is an example of the soul that Portugal imprints on people... Those who visit it surrender to it, those who live there envy every compliment. This is also our role as real estate agents. To know how to welcome and guide those who come to us, full of dreams and eagerness to meet a new people. After this period that we are currently living, this sharing of ours will be even richer and more responsible. All over the world we hear news about Portugal and the way we have reacted to the pandemic and we will continue to do so, so that in the future, the new Portuguese legend will be the heroic way of how we have known to fight all fears. Portugal is waiting for you and its charms too! Text: Lurdes Duarte Picture: Martine Auvray by Pixabay
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley already foresee signs of global recovery!
Based on an article published on May 5th by the notorious financial information platform "Bloomberg", some economists from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley report that there are signs of recovery in the world economy, regarding the impact of the coronavirus and restrictions imposed on businesses and consumers. It is likely that economic activity has already reached its lowest point, it can be read in a report by the chief economist of Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs forecasts an average slowdown of 32% in the current quarter; a growth of 16% in the next quarter and 13% growth in the last three months of 2020 in countries with advanced economies. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley's chief economist writes in a report published last weekend that there are already several indicators that the global economy was reaching its lowest level. With this, we can predict that consumer expectations are rising again, mobility has increased in relation to minimum taxes and household spending is falling in a slower fashion than in the first weeks of the pandemic. The expert's reading is that China's economy has already reached its lowest level in February, the Euro Zone is expected to hve hit it in April and the US will hit it by the end of May. HSBC, through economist James Pomeroy, warned of overly positive interpretations of the global economic recovery, preferring a more conservative stance. He quotes that figures from China show a slower recovery profile, which indicates that consumer spending may take time to recover because people are still afraid to buy or go back to work. With the easing of restrictions to combat the virus, the possibility of a second wave of the outbreak is real and could further disrupt activity. Therefore, the greatest negative risk to the global economic outlook is that infection rates will again accelerate sharply as the economy reopens. We also do not know today what the political reactions will be and what health control measures will exist in the future, as this crisis has also served as a lesson to what can and should not be done in a future public health threatening crisis. But at the same time these measures will also have to serve the well-being of current and future generations of the world population, whether or not they have been severely affected by Covid-19. If the word solidarity were to change from the simple word of an international treaty to a clear and definitive act of society, then this would be the greatest achievement! Text: Paulo Lopes Picture: Victor by Picjumbo
Teleworking - The challenges and the future
Before the current covid-19 pandemic, our daily work routine was essentially a trip to the office where we spent our 8 hours in a shared space with colleagues, and a trip back at the end of the day. When quarantine was imposed many companies were forced to send their workers home for their safety, and to implement remote working as the new standard. This was an easy swap for the companies who were already familiar with it and technologically prepared, but for others this change was almost painful. A first week with several phone calls, video conferences, technical problems, trouble organizing tasks, and some difficulty distinguishing work from personal life – Does that sound familiar to you? Yeah, you're not alone. Teleworking is nothing new and is even quite common in other countries, as it offers some advantages over traditional work. For example, it can eliminate the need of having a physical office, freeing up space and resources, and open up the range of options when hiring employees, as there is no longer a geographical limitation. For the employees, it saves them trips and meals away from home, and the increase in daily comfort results in greater motivation and productivity. There has to be, of course, a relationship based on trust and communication between the worker and the company, which can be maintained by the numerous technological tools available today. This flexibility of the workplace and working hours has been a growing trend for several years, but now it was accelerated by the current situation of the pandemic. Since many of us were forced to take the leap knowing that the next few months will be a return to a new "normal", what can we learn from the current experience? Everything indicates that many companies have embraced remote working and intend to expand more towards this option, either for hygiene and safety reasons of those involved, or as a way to stimulate the autonomy of their workers and project success. For some it means working permanently in this condition, while others may choose the option to rotate the work days between office days and teleworking. For the success of teleworking, the most important check points are: To ensure that the necessary at home work conditions exist; The employer and the worker agree beforehand on how the tasks will be performed and what goals need to be achieved; Regular contact between the team is maintained, in order to strengthen bonds and avoid any feelings of helplessness. For those who are experiencing some resistance to teleworking, remember: This is not a normal situation. We are working in our homes in the middle of a pandemic, anxious for our own and for the future, with children having classes at the same time, partners in the same on the same boat, lack of adequate equipment... that is, numerous factors that can easily have a negative impact on our assessment. Once this phase is over, who knows? Remote working can become your preferred (and your boss’s) work method. With the uncertainty of what will happen in the coming months, teleworking will continue to increasing as it is essential for the maintenance of jobs and the survival of many companies. It may even become the new norm. Text: Inês Bergmann Picture of: Anrita1705 by Pixabay
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